The 2026 Brazilian election – a double blow to the global climate: an editorial

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The term ‘fossil right’ is no coincidence. It is particularly vividly reflected in Donald Trump’s slogan ‘Drill, baby, drill!’ and the description of Russia as a ‘petrol station with missiles’. But – let’s be honest – it is also evident in the MAGA connections and fossil-fuel-industry background of Katherina Reiche, who must be regarded as Germany’s most successful destroyer of renewable energy (even the so-called ‘Altmaier U-turn’ was Reiche’s doing), the spirit of the fossil-fuel right is very much alive.

The climate – this abstract concept that everyone argues about – is, by contrast, apolitical. It simply follows the laws of physics. When gas and oil are burnt, emissions rise, and with them extreme weather events, and ultimately people die. The political decisions that lead to this are, of course, attributable to the fossil-fuel right, which knows exactly what it is doing.

The question of whether one could refer to these people as ‘murderers’, in the sense of the classic ‘armchair perpetrator’, is not to be discussed here, however. Make up your own mind on this.

Alongside the steady deterioration of the global climate, climate tipping points are the breaking points at which the climate – already on its last legs – is brought to its knees. With the coral reefs, one climate tipping point has presumably been crossed; several others are in acute danger – including the tropical rainforest. The critical level of deforestation is estimated at between 22 per cent and 28 per cent, with almost 20 per cent of the rainforest having already disappeared.

Following the massive clear-cutting under Brazil’s fossil-fuel-right-wing government led by Jair Bolsonaro, deforestation has fallen significantly under Lula da Silva (President since 2023). However, on 4 October, Brazil went to the polls; Lula’s rival is Jair Bolsonaro’s son: Flávio Bolsonaro.

The election is not yet decided; a run-off will take place on 25 October. Yet the up-and-coming young Bolsonaro beat Lula by a surprisingly clear margin in the first round, with 47 per cent to 45.1 per cent.

The threatened rainforest

Even though a great deal could still change in the upcoming run-off, it is not a good sign that the candidates in second and third place – albeit some way behind – must be counted among the conservative camp. We have known this, at the very least, since Friedrich Merz and ‘his’ CDU: conservatives are prone to allowing themselves to be used as puppets by the far right.

If Bolsonaro wins the run-off, it will be a severe blow to the global climate: deforestation in the Amazon will gather pace once more, and the fact that the other key states in the Amazon region are, almost without exception, governed by centre-right to far-right parties gives this dynamic an unsavoury momentum.

Donald Trump, too, is already threatening in the background with a ‘great partnership’ between the US and a Brazil under Flávio Bolsonaro. As I said: this low blow would be immense and can, without exaggeration, be seen as yet another major nail in the coffin of our collective future.

And the second blow to the global climate? It has already begun: this year’s El Niño is considered to be probably the most severe El Niño event since records began. It is breaking record after record; it is not for nothing that it has entered common parlance as ‘Godzilla El Niño’ … and is hitting the Amazon region head-on.

The consequences will be devastating – even without the Bolsonaros’ deforestation frenzy.

Dominic Memmel, born in Würzburg in 1980 and based in Leipzig since 2014, works as an activist, communications consultant and podcaster. Visit the author’s page.